Crombie In Trouble?
Ontario LIberals argue over a leadership review
Could Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie’s luck have already run out as leader? It’s becoming a real possibility thanks to Nate Erskine Smith. He wrote on his substack about the future of Ontario politics. “I’ll be a little more blunt than I have been to date: That renewal starts at the top.
Picking up six seats over the 2022 provincial election is an improvement, but Crombie still hasn’t got a seat. That is the biggest sticking point; no leader in the legislature means there’s no dominant voice in the legislature to speak in the house, or to the media on the Liberals’ behalf. They have increased resources at Queen’s Park, but we haven’t heard much from them.
What has made Ontario Premier Doug Ford successful has been a mixture of being a flexible populist, by backing down from policy decisions, and an ability to manipulate a crisis. But federally at least, the Liberals seem to be countering populism with a realistic pragmatism in Mark Carney. Is there anyone like that at the provincial level because that’s what it will take to beat Ford. And if not Nate Erskine Smith, then who? There aren’t a lot of people out there to take on leadership with the time, and money to mount such a challenge to Ford, which leads to the question of why have a leadership race now? The answer to this might be timing; we’re far enough away from an election so the Liberals do a proper rebuild of the party. The fact the Ontario NDP remains in opposition almost calls for something more drastic than a new leader. There was a buzz of some merger talks with the NDP, and luring Mike Shcreiner away from the Green Party.
The questions over Crombie’s leadership have been around at least for the last year. The resignation of Parm Gill triggered a by-election in the Milton riding. It was ripe for winning after it was revealed that the PC candidate used to be a federal Liberal. It angered a lot of voters, giving the riding an appearance of an easy win. However that was not the case, as PC MPP Zee Hamid won, a feat he’d repeat in February’s election.
I was never officially introduced to Bonnie Crombie, but I watched her that night at the party here in Milton. After the speeches were done she walked from table-to-table talking quietly to those who were still there, offering comfort. There’s a lot to be said for someone in leadership who takes the loss, and stays to offer comfort after the cameras stop recording.
Crombie’s fate is actually two questions. Should they get rid of her? There’s an argument for that. But who does party have that could potentially beat Doug Ford? The answer to the second, should decide whether there is a leadership election.