The recognition of a Palestinian State has been proceeding slowly based on a plan presented at a recent Foreign Ministers meeting for full recognition at September's United Nations’ general Assembly. Today it was Prime Minister Mark Carney’s turn. He delicately threaded between a door to peace, and a new country based on specific conditions. And a window open to the possibility of changing his mind based on new information. In the media availability afterwards. He was asked if there was any way he wouldn’t be recognizing the state, and he answered none that he could see. It sounded like he was keeping an open mind. Carney came across as rightfully skeptical. It’s hard not to look at this, and see what could go wrong.
The joke goes that Mahmoud Abbas is in year 20 of a four-year term. A man that has enjoyed the comforts of his office will be reluctant to give it up. In a population so young, where do you find candidates willing to do the hard work of building a country? How do you conduct free and fair elections? Hamas used force to take over Gaza in 2007, there will be nothing stopping them from doing so again. Abbas worked with foreign ministers on a list of conditions that included the release of the fifty remaining hostages, free, and fair elections, as well as the demilitarization of the state, and an agreement that Hamas would not be part of any governing body. Cooperation is a positive step
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Hamas has their hands in every aspect of Palestinian society from their schools and aid distribution to building civilian infrastructure. They are guilty of mass murder, kidnapping, and rape- and that’s just what happened October 7. Their mandate is the total destruction of the Jewish State (Israel) . Their hateful ideology has spread like wildfire through western countries like Canada where protesters have shouted in favour of killing Jews, and this will be difficult to come back from. It is rational to fear thus move may legitimize Hamas, emboldening them to attack western targets. That may very well trigger the reversal of this decision, at least on Canada's part.
Germany was forced to disarm under the treaty of Versailles after World War 1, but found ways to re-arm through the 20’s and thirties. Japan’s disarmament came at the end of World War II, and lasted until 2014. In this age of repeating history, there is precedent for prohibiting a country to arm itself. But with that comes the question of how to enforce it. Could the Israelis be involved? What about neighbouring countries? Maybe international community via peacekeeping? And with peacekeeping where does that leave Canada?
For any agreement to work, there must be trust. How does trust get rebuilt through this process? There is a growing disconnect between Israelis and their government. Protests over the war, and getting the hostages back take place on an almost nightly basis. Meanwhile Benjamin Netanyahu becomes more isolated as he seeks more right-wing support in the name of preserving his mandate. Israel would be the obvious regional partner to help with enforcement, but trust appears a rare commodity. There's work to be done on restoring trust before any agreement. At minimum, the move towards recognition of a Palestinian State might provide a reality check, that their actions have gone too far.
The war in Gaza has become a tragic cycle of peace talks, and almost agreements followed by military action from Israel, and condemnations from the international community. Somebody has to try something different, and drastic. This may be it, but it's still tough to see past the negatives.